An analysis method, based on Bayes' Theorem, was developed which can be used to evaluate the probability that a spectrum can be explained by background processes alone, and thereby determine whether a signal process is necessary . Monte Carlo techniques were used to make predictions about the possible outcomes of the experiments and to evaluate the sensitivity for the process under study.
The method was applied to the case of the GERDA experiment for which the sensitivity to neutrinoless double beta-decay of Ge-76 was calculated (Fig. 1-4). With a background index of 0.001 counts/(kg⋅keV⋅y) and an exposure of 100 kg⋅years the sensitivity of the half-life of the process is expected to be 13.5⋅1025 years.
Figure 1: Lower limit halflife vs. exposure (.eps) (.jpg)
Figure 2: Lower limit mass vs. exposure (.eps) (.jpg)
Figure 3: Discovery potential halflife vs. exposure (.eps) (.jpg)
Figure 4: Discovery potential mass vs. exposure (.eps) (.jpg)
 A. Caldwell, K. Kröninger, Phys. Rev. D 74 (2006) 092003 [arXiv:physics/0608249].